Decent money can be withdrawn from the bookmakers, if you don’t just put money, you can intelligently make predictions and calculate each of your actions.
There are many different betting tactics, but their profitability is different. The best strategies are always built on mathematical calculations and now you will learn about one of these techniques.
The best value betting strategy for sports is based on the calculation of the expectation.
For each game you will need to make calculations, which will help you to make the right and most importantly winning bet. Part of the funds can be lost, but in the long run you will not remain without income.
It’s not so difficult to apply, but you need to have an analytical mindset, it’s good to be considered and analyzed. You will perform calculations using one simple formula:
MO = V * P (V) - L * (1 - P (V))
The formula is the expectation, the main goal is to find a positive value to find rates that are profitable in the long run.
If you read an article about how a bookmaker makes a profit, you should know that bookmakers cleverly distribute odds in order to stay in the black.
Some people are sure that by betting on a favorite, they are guaranteed to get a win and sometimes it works, but the profit is minimal.
Think for yourself, if you win by a factor of 1. 05, the bookmaker pays out only 5% to the winners, and if the favorite loses, the bookmaker's “wallet” is replenished by a decent amount.
Given all this, for profitable bets you need to find the optimal outcomes, which at the same time have the potential to win and profit will be decent.
It’s time to figure out what the letters in the formula mean:
Too difficult to understand? Let's look at a specific example. Suppose you find a game between teams A and B. Team A is the favorite, the odds are 1. 3.
Team B is an outsider and the odds of winning are 7. 4. A tie is set to 3. 9. Now you need to hold analysis to determine the percentage of probability of loss and winnings for each bet.
We have already conducted it and obtained the following result:
Now you can substitute all the data in the formula and carry out the necessary calculation:
As you can see, only a draw turned out to be a positive MO. This means that this rate is ideal for earnings.
Some will say, but the probability of a draw is only 30% . Yes, the chance is not the same as if you bet on an obvious favorite, but in the long run you will definitely get a plus if you trust the results of your calculations.
For the perfect implementation of Value Betting strategy, use games from any one tournament.
To believe in the effectiveness of such tactics, you must first understand that always putting on a favorite is not so profitable.
Imagine if you bet on the dollar on the estimated winner with a factor of 1. 07. After 10 games you will collect only 70 cents and, if you ever lose a favorite, you immediately lose an even larger amount ($ 1).
Also, do not forget that any strategies should be applied in the best bookmakers. For the calculation of expectations and rates for this method, your profile will not be blocked exactly, the rules are not violated. This is one of the main advantages of this tactic.
Test it with small bets and after 10-20 bets you will notice how much your balance has increased.
It will also be interesting for you:
- Paid sports forecasts from Betforecast
- Bookmaker bonuses
- Corner cards and cards - a hint for a sports forecast